WNBA Bets 2007 Archive

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This is the archive of all of the tips posts I made during the 2007 WNBA Season.

I apologize that this page is a bit of a mess. I essentially combined a ton of individual posts from my database from the 2007 season and merged them into this. So there’ll be stuff not even related to the tips in here.

In 2007 I went 68-47 for a 59.1 Win Ratio.

WNBA 2007 Picks Archives:

Welcome

Hello everyone, and welcome to my new site.  My name is Dealer Dan, and you may know me more as a gambling affiliate.  I’m someone that has a love for all things sports, and more importantly, all things sports betting.  There’s rarely a night I don’t have money riding on a game.

With the NBA over, there really wasn’t much to bet on until August, when soccer season starts up again.  I decided to have a look at the WNBA, a league that I was very unfamiliar with.  After looking through it, I realized that it would take 4 months for me to get a good grasp on it, so I decided to go the easier route I wrote a computer program that tells me what to bet.  To simplify, this program, which is highly customizable, will take all previous stats over the season(or a period from my choosing), will take the current spreads, and will tell me what ones to bet on, and what ones NOT to bet on.

I started posting these picks on various forums, and while met with some skepticism at first,  the results really had people become a lot more positive in regard to it.  The first system I was running was betting on a lot more games, and seemed to be of more high variance.  I wrote a new system that was focused more on the analysis front, and that is the system we are using today.  The old system was profitable however, and I retired it at 35 wins, 25 losses, or a respectable 58.3% winning percentage.

I’ll write some articles in relation to the bot soon, but for now let’s get rolling with the predictions!

July 3 San Antonio Silver Stars vs Washington Mystics In the first day of the new betting robot, we have just the one bet. The Silver Stars go on the road to take on the Mystics tonight, and the spread has San Antonio at +3.5, which is the bots only bet of the day. It also expects the Silver Stars to win this one outright too, so keep that in mind while betting.
July 6 Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury, New York Liberty vs Detroit Shock The new system got off to an excellent start last time, setting us up with our very first win.  Long may it continue.

Todays picks are Connecticut Sun +6, and New York Liberty +10.

YTD: 1-0-0 (100%)
July 7 Washington Mystics vs Chicago Sky The new system has got off to a solid start, as we are now 3-0 after last nights games.

Today, the bot only likes one game, which is Washington +4 vs Chicago Sky.  The bot predicts Washington to not only cover, but to also win this game, so if you’re someone who bets different amounts depending on the perceived strength of the bet, this would be a 5 dimer so to speak.
July 8 Phoenix Mercury vs Detroit Shock Washington cover, and bring our year to date at 4-0.  They also won outright, so hope some of you bettors managed to get on that one for some nice easy money.

Today just the one bet Phoenix +3.5 vs Detroit Shock.  Take Phoenix.
July 10th Seattle Storm vs Los Angeles Sparks, Chicago Sky vs Detroit Shock, Minnesota Lynx vs Washington Mystics Todays bets are:

Los Angeles Sparks +4

Chicago +7.5

Minnesota +5.5

YTD: 4-1 (80%)
July 11th San Antonio Silver Stars vs Phoenix Mercury, Connecticut Sun vs Seattle Storm A disappointing 0-3 day yesterday for the new system.

Today, take San Antonio +4, Connecticut +7.5.

YTD: 4-3 (57.1%)
July 12th Detroit Shock vs Chicago Sky, Sacramento Monarchs vs Connecticut Sun Bounced back from that 0-3 day yesterday, with a solid 2 out of 2 correct picks.

Today we have Detroit -3.5 and Connecticut +7. The Connecticut one the bot sees the line at +2, so this is a huge discrepancy, and I advise higher wagers on this one. It expects Connecticut to cover 70% of the time, so if you use the Kelly Criterion, you could make quite a bit of cash here!

YTD: 6-3, 66.7%
July 17th Minnesota Lynx vs Connecticut Sun Well we went into a five day break due to the all-star game, with two more victories!  I also had forgot to carry over a loss which I will add to todays statistics, so our YTD is 8-4.

Minnesota +9 is the play of the day today.  I’ve noticed since making my own bets, and making them public, the lines seem to go down.  I don’t know if that’s a coincidence or what, but don’t go below +7.5 for this one.
July 18th Over/Under Bet We covered yesterday, and so are now 9-4, 69.2%.

No bets today, but I would like to advise you to take the over in the Detroit/New York game.  The line is currently 142.5, but the bot likes it at 150.
July 20th Washington Mystics vs Minnesota Lynx, Seattle Storm vs Connecticut Storm Hope you all got on that over/under bet as it was a winner.  I will not be factoring it into my results log however, as I’m more concerned with getting the spreads correct.

Today we have Seattle +3.5, Washington +1(or just bet em outright still +EV).
July 21st Washington Mystics vs Detroit Shocks, Indiana Fever vs Chicago Sky Todays picks are Washington +8, Indiana -1.5.

Yesterday we went 1-1, and so YTD 10-5.
July 22 Houston Comets vs Connecticut Sun, Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Our first push was yesterday in the Washington game.  I noticed the line went up to +8.5 late on, so hopefully some of you got on that!  We also lost the other game.

YTD: 10-6-1

Todays bets: Houston +6.5, Minnesota +8.5.
July 24 Washington Mystics vs Seattle Storm, Detroit Shock vs Connecticut Sun We went 1-1 on Sunday, and our record is now 11-7-1.

Today, take Washington +2.5 and Detroit -2.5.  Cheryl Ford is expected to play for Detroit, so this is the usual bet your max units pick.
July 25 Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Winning days are FUN, aren’t they?  We went 2-0 yesterday, to bring our record to 13-7-1.

Today we have just the one pick: Phoenix -3.
July 26 New York Liberty vs Connecticut Sun, Chicago Sky vs Detroit Shock Today take New York +5.5, Chicago +8.

YTD: 14-7-1
July 27 Los Angeles Sparks vs Minnesota Lynx Take Los Angeles +2 tonight.

YTD: 16-7-1 (69.6%)
July 28 Detroit Shock vs Washington Mystics Loss yesterday, brings us to 16-8-1.

Today we have Detroit -2.5.  Bot thinks the line here should be -5, so nice edge here.  Ford being missing though may change things.
Sunday July 29 Minnesota Lynx vs Sacramento Monarchs, Los Angeles Sparks vs Detroit Shock Yesterday was an easy victory thanks to Detroit.  Today the robot predicts two huge underdogs, with Los Angeles Sparks +9, and Minnesota Lynx, also +9.

YTD: 17-8-1

July 31 Four Picks The bot went an excellent 2-0 yesterday, to put us at 19-8-1, or 70.4%.

Hopefully we’ll end July on a continued high note.  The end of the month is Tuesday, and the bot likes the following:

Detroit -1(65%)
Chicago +5(57%)
Los Angeles +6(59%)
Washington +3.5 (59%)
Live WNBA Odds Bodog is currently the only sportsbook that offers live WNBA odds feeds. If no odds are listed below, it means Bodog doesn’t have the spreads up yet. Be sure to check the Where to Bet section to see what other sportsbooks offer WNBA odds.

Where To Bet I’m often asked where the best places to bet the WNBA are.  While a majority of sportsbooks offer lines on WNBA, there are some that are better than others, whether it be reliability, customer service, reduced juice, and a variety of other options.  I have split this page into two sections due to the UIEGA, and that is Sportsbooks that accept US Customers, and Sportsbooks that unfortunately, aren’t US-Friendly.  These are ordered just in my own preference, but I highly recommend you click on each one, and weigh up the pros and cons of each before deciding.

August 2nd Phoenix vs San Antonio YTD: 21-10-1.

Take Phoenix +4(64%).
August 3rd New York Liberty vs Washington Mystics, Los Angeles Sparks vs Houston Comets Phoenix’s excellent victory last night takes us to YTD: 22-10-1.
Todays picks are New York +5.5(55%) and Los Angeles +4(61%).
Over/Under Predictions Beginning… Those who have followed the 2+2 thread since I began botting the WNBA will know that I’ve went back and forth with posting the over/under predictions. It was an aspect of my system that I just hadn’t put too much work into, and I wasn’t confident recommending to others. It seemed spotty at best. For example, it went 13-0 for July 17th through July 20th, then went on a 1-12 losing streak, sometimes being off by a large amount of points. I’ve been keeping track, and in the month of June it went 28-40, and in the month of July 37-36, both of which would of course cause us to lose money.

So at the end of July, I put some more work into the over/under prediction to hopefully make that profitable as well. I’ll be posting ALL picks for the sake of it, however I will also have a separate category for picks with a 3+ point difference from the actual line, as I feel that’s an adequate number to factor in a margin of error. I will put a * beside each of those picks. Please bear in mind that this system is still in beta mode I do not advise betting big on it. For example if you’re the type of person who bets in units, I’d recommend betting 1/4-1/3 a unit at most on these.

Tonights predictions when the lines posted(which I forgot to post originally and apologize for doing so) are:

Washington/New York: Over 143*
Houston/Los Angeles Over 149*
Chicago/Detroit: Over 152
Sacramento/Seattle: Under 149

Record is currently 1-1(for both systems).  Hopefully this was a bit clearer than mud 🙂
August 4th Phoenix Mercury vs Seattle Storm, Los Angeles Sparks vs San Antonio Silver Stars I’m going away to my cottage for the week, and will be without internet access.  During that time, I won’t be able to answer e-mails, nor post any picks.  However, I will be communicating with a friend via telephone(hopefully!) and will be providing him with all the information.  For the next week, YTD and O/U stats won’t be tracked on here to save us time.  I’ll get it all tracked when I get back.  If you have any questions or comments that can’t wait, be sure to e-mail wnba@dealerdangaming.com and he’ll be able to communicate them to me.

Picks for today are Los Angeles +7.5 (59%) and Phoenix +1 (61%).

Los Angeles/San Antonio: Over 146.5*
Phoenix/Seattle: Under 175*
Houston/Minnesota: Under 156
Indiana/Connecticut: Over 144
August 5th Chicago Sky vs Washington Mystics, Indiana vs Sacramento Monarchs Picks are Chicago +4 (59%) and Indiana +2 (58%).

Chicago/Washington: Over 151
Indiana/Sacramento: Over 134.5
Catching Up… I managed to get internet access at my cottage by a grace of god, so I’ll be able to post the lines myself from now on.  The person who WAS posting the lines didn’t manage to get the lines posted until ten minutes before the Chicago match…..but that was probably a good thing, as it meant many of you missed out on that loss, and so would have ended up with a winning day.

We’ve hit a slight bump in the road the past 3 days, going 1-5, and getting creamed in the experimental Over/Under system.  Our W/L record is 23-15-1, or 60.5%.  Over/Under wise, we’re a depressing 2-8 for total predictions, and 3-3 in the 3 point error margin system.  Like the spread analysis and system, I’ve put a bit more work into it, and I’m a bit more comfortable with giving spreads now.  I won’t bother listing publicly every over/under prediction anymore instead sticking with any picks 3 points or more difference, and have tweaked it somewhat so it should hopefully produce more accurate results.  So we’re 3-3 with that one, and we’ll hopefully start winning as of Tuesday!

Tuesday lines will be up in a few hours so you can get on them before they change overnight.
Tuesday August 7th Chicago Sky vs Indiana Fever Tuesday, unfortunately the lines are pretty much dead on, as we only have:

Chicago -2.5(57%)

I’ll track the line movements and see if anything changes in our favour and make an updated post if so.

In O/U, we have:

San Antonio/Washington Over 149.5
Houston/New York Under 144
August 7th Added Pick Minnesota Lynx vs Seattle Storm The line has now moved to +3, so Minnesota is the pick at 57%.
August 9th Predictions Seattle Storm vs Detroit Shock, LA Sparks vs Washington Mystics, Silver Stars vs Monarchs, Liberty vs Mercury Well, a disappointing 2-2 night, as we went 1-1 in the spreads, and 1-1 in the over/under. Even more disappointing as it looked like being a wonderful 4-0 night heading into the 4th quarters. Oh well considering we won the over bet by .5 points, you won’t hear me complaining!

W/L YTD: 24-16-1 (60%)
O/U YTD: 4-4 (50%)

No games tomorrow, however for Thursday so far we:

Seattle +9 (58%)
Los Angeles +1 (61%)

Over/Under:

Detroit/Seattle Over 150

San Antonio/Sacramento Over 142

New York vs Phoenix Under 165
August 10th No Picks Bad night last night, 0-2 on spreads, 1-2 in O/U.

No bets today.
Saturday, August 11 Picks I’ve went through a few of the losses over the last week, and I think quite a few of them are based on me not adjusting the bot correctly based on injuries.  I’ve spent some time trying to fix that today, and think that I’ve got it running more smoothly now.  I’ve also spent some time doing adjustments on a teams strength.  For example, Washington were pitiful at the start of the season, going on an 0-8 streak, however they’ve now won their last 4, or their last 9 in 12 games, and so it should base it more on a teams current run of results/stats/form rather than the whole season.  Remember, this is just a work in progress at the moment!  Also to those who have asked, yes I will attempting the same thing for the NBA.  Also although there were no predictions yesterday as they were below the threshold, the bot correctly predicted both Houston to cover and over 143.5, so I’m hopefully back on the right track.

Saturday, we have bets on all games, with:

Indiana +7.5(59%)
Connecticut -1.5 (57%)
Washington +3 (57%)
Los Angeles +10.5 (59%)
Houston +7(59%)

Over/Under:

Detroit/Indiana Over 142
Chicago/Conn Over 152
Houston/San Antonio Over 146

Good luck all.
August 12th Minnesota Lynx vs Los Angeles Sparks, Washington Mystics vs Sacramento Monarchs Well what started out as a great night(3-0 in spreads) ended up being just okay, thanks to Washington completely crashing in the 3rd quarter.  We went 3-2 in spreads, and 2-1 in O/U, for a solid 5-3 winning night.

Current records:

W/L YTD: 27-20-1 (57.5%)
O/U: 7-7 (50%)

Today we have:

Minnesota +2(59%)
Washington/Sacramento Over 145.5
August 14th Picks Connecticut Sun vs Washington Mystics Apologies for the lateness of these posts had problems with my internet.

Todays picks:

Connecticut -1 (57%)

Chicago/New York Over 144
Connecticut/Washington Over 154.5
August 15th Picks Tonight take both overs.  Connecticut/Indiana over 143.5 and San Antonio/Sacramento over 139.5.
August 16th Picks We went 2-0 yesterday in the O/U, and current records are 27-21-1 in the spreads, 9-7 in the O/U, and so are 56.3% in both.

No spread picks today, and I don’t think we’ll be seeing any more until the playoffs.  Just two totals picks, which are:

Detroit/Minnesota Over 155.5
Washington/New York over 146.5
August 17 Picks Seattle/LA, Connecticut/New York, San Antonio/Indiana
We went 1-1 last night in the O/U.

Today we have:

Seattle -8 (58%)
Connecticut/New York Over 145
San Antonio/Indiana Over 138
August 23rd San Antonio Silver Stars vs Sacramento Monarchs It’s playoff time baby!

There were no picks for Sunday the 19th, and I didn’t have a chance to make a post.  Our current record is:

Spreads: 28-21-1 (57.1%)
O/U: 7-7 (50%)

Tomorrow just the one pick San Antonio/Sacramento over 141.5.
August 24th No Picks Yesterday was a win, to put the O/U at 8-7 for the year.

No bets today.
August 25th Picks San Antonio Silver Stars & Connecticut Sun San Antonio 3: 57%
Connecticut +3: 59%
August 26th Picks New York +8: 57%
New York/Detroit Over 145
Seattle/Phoenix Under 177
August 27th Picks San Antonio -3.5: 58%

Indiana -3.5: 57%

Indiana game over 139
August 28 Picks Went 2-1 last night yay.  Tonight take New York +7.5 (61%).
August 28th Addition Also take over 145.
WNBA Tips Status Update Hi everyone,

I wanted to give a status update on the site.  After our last picks, I had a problem with the bot in that the database that was storing the data became corrupt.  While I had an earlier backup, I didn’t have the time to rebuild it all.  With the playoffs being fairly tight anyway, I wasn’t too comfortable relying on the bot, and so decided to  just call it quits for the season.  I kept meaning to post a notice about this, but never had time.

With the WNBA season over, I’ve been playing around with the bot, reading a lot of literature, and trying to tweak it for the NBA season.  I’m fairly confident that we can have a winning season in the NBA like we did in the WNBA, and so will be doing bot picks again when the NBA season starts although it will be a few weeks into the season before I really start the picks.  I will be creating a separate website for the NBA tips, and once I get that launched I will let you all know.

In the meantime, I will be posting WNBA related news here on the site during the off-season.  As I know everyone on the mailing list is probably here just for the tips, I will disband the mailing list until the season starts up again.

When I first started botting the WNBA, it was on a trial period to see if this is something I could actually have some sort of success at.  Any sort of success for this season I would have been happy with, and I’m ecstatic that we had a winning season.  The original system we used went 35-25 for a 58.3% winning percentage, and the new system went 33-22, for a 60% winning percentage, results that I am just ecstatic with.

Thanks to everyone for supporting and following the system it’s much appreciated, and really kept me going.  The NBA season is upon us, so let’s hit a 60% winning percentage for that too!