What is the WNBA Bot?

The WNBA Bot / Robot is a computer program I have written. It’s aim is to accurately predict the differences in the teams playing each other, and then factor in the point spread, and use that to come up with an expected winning percentage for each team, which we then bet on.

What language is the bot written in?

C++.

Why did you create the bot?

I bet a lot on sports. I try to make my picks based only on statistics and basic fact, but unfortunately it’s very hard to do that. Sometimes emotion or media stories get in the way, which can change your opinion. Remember when the New Orlean Saints came close to the Superbowl this year? How many people who bet on them, bet on them with the belief that they could beat Chicago? And how many people bet on them because after the troubles New Orleans suffered with the hurricanes, they felt they were “due”? A lot of sports betters are superstitious, and could have bet on them as they felt “it had to happen”. That’s an extreme example, but one nonetheless where people ignore basic facts and statistics, and bet based on feeling, gut instinct and emotion. I wrote this bot to stop myself from doing that.

What factors play in to the robots results?

Many, many factors, mostly statistics. The bot also takes into account other factors like home advantage for example. Where the complexity of the bot comes in, is that it works out how much of a contribution one factor is. For example, I don’t tell the bot “Okay, if the team is playing at home, take their base points and add 25%”. I let the bot figure that out for itself, going through every result and determining the advantage a team should have based on being at home as opposed to being on the road. The bot will also factor in when players are missing from the squad.

Is this bot a winner?

As of this writing(July 29, 2007) it’s too early to say. To be a winner, based on the standard -110 odds, it has to predict more than 52.38% wins. As of this writing, it has won 17 and lost 8, which is a 68% picking record. However the sample size is small. I’d like to think it’s a winner, however that’s something that we really can’t say until the end of the WNBA season.

Should I follow the bots picks?

Yes. I’m confident enough in the picks, and I post them here publicly, which means I am confident enough to recommend them to others. If you don’t bet purely on the bots picks, then use the bots picks as a guideline to picking.

Why don’t you list every pick the bot makes?

I have a strict margin of error, and only post the bots picks when it recommends a team to win by 57% or more. If you would like the statistics on a particular game and what the bot thinks, please just post in the comments on the site, and I will be sure to answer immediately. I also don’t list over/unders because that aspect of it doesn’t seem to be accurate yet, but again I can tell you the expectations on that.

I have another question.

Please either leave it in the comments of the article, or e-mail me at dan@dealerdangaming.com.